Every tipster should do a lot of research before placing a bet. He should study the teams, line-ups, weather, and other details related to the particular match he considers to bet on. And sometimes he is so overwhelmed by the stats, that he forgets the “big picture”. And the big picture can be very important too. Leagues’ goals per game averages are a good example of a useful “big picture” statistics you should not overlook.
Current Season [2019/2020] Stats:
How the “COVID-19” break and “no spectators” impacted the game?
We look at different stats (goal average, home and away wins) in four major leagues (Bundesliga, La Liga, Premier League, and Seria A) to determine what effect the long break and playing behind closed doors have on the game.
Spain: La Liga
England: Premier League
Italy: Seria A
Germany: Bundesliga – League Finished
Leagues Goals Per Game Averages
Leagues Goals per Game Averages in past Seasons [2014 – 2019]
Note 1: MLS season is the same as the calendar year. So keep in mind that data are for seasons 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014.
Note 2: Ligue 1 and Eredivisie in 2019/2020 finished earlier due to “COVID-19”. The averages reflect the shortened season.
How to use “Big Picture” data in day to day betting [example]
Written based on the data as of 09/19/2019.
There were plenty of goals in the first three rounds of Seria A this season. You can see the goals per game average is reaching 3.17. That is well above all usual averages we saw in the last five seasons.
This will inevitably lead to a decrease in odds shown on overs generally. Betting companies are usually very quick in absorbing a new sample of data. They always rely on statistics. Vice versa odds on under should be higher than usual.
My advice and approach will be following.
I would be very cautious when betting on over in any Seria A match in the coming weeks. Of course, maybe we are witnessing the big change in the trend, and Seria A will become the most entertaining league in the world with tens of goals. But I would still expect the goals per game average will fall down a lot. In fact, I would use this as an opportunity to look for overpriced odds on under 2.5 or even under 3.5 goals in the coming days.
This one idea I will be keeping in mind when I will do an analysis of particular matches played over the weekend. I will focus on the over/under odds. I will avoid any over bets (due to low odds and my expectations that goals average should go lower) and will try to find a good overpriced bet on under.
Results: There were 28 goals in the 4th matchday of Seria A. That makes an average of 2.8 goals per game in the round (much less than the average of the first 3 matchdays 3.17). 4 games finished under 2.5 goals and 6 games finished over 2.5 goals. We were right about the decreasing goals in the next round, but the picking of particular matches was especially important too.
This is just one example of how to use general data in betting. I hope this article was useful to you.
This blog post was written by Simon Kostrava. He is a professional tipster and author of the popular book The Betting Industry: Who Makes the Most Money and How?. He also runs two very successful and profitable betting portfolios: Tennis Only and Soccer Soda – Soccer Only.